Presidential Markets, Again.

Retirement, Income, Tax & Estate Planning.

Presidential Markets, Again.

August 27, 2020 Government Newsletter Uncategorized 0

Are you tired of hearing about the election yet? Just so you know, we have (as of today) 66 days to go.

A few weeks back I wrote about presidents and the markets, but a lot of what I referenced spoke to overall presidential careers. I dug around Marketwatch.com and put together figures for each presidential term. Do the numbers tell a different story when viewed this way? See for yourself.

President

Term DJIA
Close
DJIA
Change

Percent

Donald Trump (3 yrs) 2017-

27,930

8,198

41.5%

Barack Obama 2013-17

19,732

6,083

44.6%

Barack Obama 2009-13

13,650

5,368

64.8%

George W. Bush 2005-09

8,281

-2,259

-21.4%

George W. Bush 2001-05

10,540

-48

-0.4%

Bill Clinton 1997-01

10,588

3,754

54.9%

Bill Clinton 1993-97

6,833

3,577

109.9%

George H.W. Bush 1989-93

3,256

1,017

45.4%

Ronald Reagan 1985-89

2,239

1,012

82.4%

Ronald Reagan 1981-85

1,227

256

26.4%

Jimmy Carter 1977-81

971

2

0.2%

Only one president had to deal with, or caused (depending on your point of view), a negative market. George W. Bush saw an overall negative market in both his terms. But, then again, he also oversaw the Dot-com bubble bursting, 9/11, and two recessions… the last of which was the global financial crash of 2008-2009. His father, George H.W. Bush, was our last one-term president. While the market rose 45.5% during his term, there was a significant recession from late 1990 into 1991 and joblessness remained high as he entered the 1992 election slog.

In terms of presidents seeking reelection, the Carter markets were flat and he did not win a second term. Reagan managed to win his second term with only 26.4% market growth to show for his first four years, and saw a booming market his second term. George H.W. Bush, as we already discussed, was dragged down by a sluggish jobs market, and lost his reelection bid. His successor, William J. Clinton, saw the market more than double his first term, but the 54.9% growth of the second term did not help his vice president Al Gore in his own election bid. George W. Bush won reelection on a flat market, but whether that was due to post-9/11 nationalism or a poor campaign by John Kerry, who can say? Obama clinched a second term with a 64.8% gain in the markets during his first term.

What does this mean for the future, with president Trump currently owning 41.5% market growth in his first term? Absolutely nothing. But people like to see this stuff and make predictions, so here we are.