By Robert E. Quittner, Jr. CFP® & CMFC™
Investment Advisor Representative
[email protected]
This past Wednesday began like any other weekday morning. I got into the office by 6 a.m., caught up with Peter for a few minutes to discuss current events, and then settled into my office with a bowl of Greek yogurt and fresh fruit while reading the financial news. I was pleasantly surprised by Tuesday’s closing returns—but I’ll come back to that later.
It’s been an interesting year so far in many respects. Back in January, I wrote an article analyzing the odds of repeating the 20%+ gains the S&P 500 saw in both 2023 and 2024. At the time, I said those odds were slim to none—and that I’d be content with an average year yielding a modest 10.5% gain.
To my surprise, the market continued to rise steadily through January and well into February. By February 19, the S&P 500 was up 4.5%. But that optimism was short-lived, as those gains quickly vanished over the next six days amid escalating tariff talk.
Here are some of the key events that have shaped the market since February 19:
- Aggressive Tariff Policies and Market Crash (April 2–8):
On April 2, President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on imports from over 60 countries. The announcement triggered a sharp global selloff, with the S&P 500 plummeting over 10% in just two days—one of the steepest two-day declines in history.
- Policy Reversal and Market Recovery (April 9):
On April 9, facing mounting pressure from investors and economic advisors, the Trump administration announced a 90-day pause on the tariffs—excluding those on China. This policy shift sparked a major rally, with the S&P 500 posting its biggest one-day gain since 2008.
- Tariff Cuts on China (May 11):
Trump slashed the China tariffs from 145% to 30% including a 20% tariff tied to fentanyl. In turn China cut its 125% tariff on U.S. goods to 10%. The U.S tariff cuts don’t apply to 25% sector duties on steel, aluminum and more.
Now, back to that bowl of yogurt. Before diving into the financial headlines, I checked the market numbers. Between April 9 and this past Tuesday, May 12, the S&P 500 had gained back 18.2%, effectively erasing the year’s earlier losses.
The chart below illustrates this wild ride to date:
Over the past few weeks, clients have frequently asked how their portfolios have fared—many admitting they were too nervous to check. Fortunately, it’s been nice to deliver some good news after a rocky first four months.
Despite the recent volatility, the market has made a strong comeback from its early April lows. While no two corrections are exactly alike, this rebound is a clear reminder that staying disciplined during turbulent times can make a real difference. The road ahead is still uncertain, but times like these reinforce why keeping a long-term perspective is so important in investing.
Take care and enjoy this “short” weekend as you get ready for Memorial Day!
Rob