by Robert E. Quittner, Jr., CFP® & CMFC™
Investment Advisor Representative
[email protected]
Good morning! I never thought I would look forward to freezing temps in the 30s. I walked out of the house yesterday and it felt like I didn’t need a coat! We have lived in our present home for 25 years and never experienced frozen pipes… until Saturday morning. My shower drain froze along with the washing machine drainpipe. Luckily, no pipes burst and by Monday night both thawed out and everything was working again. On a positive note, AccuWeather predicts we could hit 50 degrees next Thursday! Anyway, enough about the weather. I’ll move on to my topic for today.
In the 1950s, an economist named Harry Markowitz came up with an idea that changed the way we think about investing. Instead of looking at how risky each individual investment is on its own, he said we should look at how all our investments work together as a group.
His big insight was simple: diversification works. When you own different types of investments that don’t all move in the same direction at the same time, the ups and downs can balance each other out. That means your overall portfolio can have a smoother ride, even if some of the individual pieces are more volatile.
In plain English, it’s the driver behind the old saying, “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” By mixing investments that behave differently, you can lower the overall risk of your portfolio without necessarily giving up potential returns. Since this concept lowers the volatility of your portfolio, your money compounds at a higher rate, which is what we strive for… higher growth on our hard-earned money. Markowitz’s work became known as Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) which is the foundation of how institutional portfolios and pension plans are constructed today.
Some of this may be familiar to many of you, but there’s an important reason I’m revisiting it today. There’s an old Wall Street saying: “Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered.” A simpler version is: “Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.” They both boil down to a simple fact: investors who stay disciplined—whether they’re generally optimistic or more cautious— can do well over time. But when someone becomes overly greedy and shifts a significant percentage of their portfolio to an area that is currently doing well, that’s often when mistakes are made. Moving the analogies from the barnyard to baseball, successful investing is more about hitting plenty of singles and doubles with an occasional triple rather than swinging for a home run every time at bat.
We have seen plenty of these so-called “hot” investments over the past few years. Just to name a few, there have been mega-cap growth tech stocks, AI, energy, materials, and semiconductors. Cryptocurrency was hot in 2024 through 2025 and look at how that trend went.
| Date | Bitcoin – Price Per BTC |
| 9/1/2024 | $54,000 |
| 12/2/2024 | $101,000 |
| 6/29/2025 | $123,000 |
| 2/12/2026 | $66,000 |
Over the 10 months from September 2024 to June 2025, Bitcoin rose 127%! However, over the past nine months, it has lost 46%. Looking at the entire 19-month period, it works out to a 22% gain. Comparatively, the S&P gained 28% over the same time period. If you had bought Bitcoin back in 2017, it’s a much different story than having bought it in the past year and a half. The bottom line is that timing matters!
Gold has been a very hot commodity over the last year, and as the headlines have escalated so has the interest from investors. Gold is a different story than crypto speculation and is still unfolding.
| Date | Gold – Price Per Ounce |
| 9/1/2024 | $2,500 |
| 12/2/2024 | $2,600 |
| 6/29/2025 | $3,300 |
| 2/12/2026 | $5,102 |
Gold has climbed to new highs because people are starting to think interest rates may come down, and there’s still a lot of uncertainty around the world. On top of that, central banks have been buying more gold as a way to diversify their reserves.
While we do hold a small percentage of gold in some of our portfolios, we are not going overboard. We certainly don’t know where gold is going next, but here are some expectations from larger firms.
| Institution | 2026 Target | Scenario / Range | Key Drivers |
| J.P. Morgan | ~$5,055 (Q4 avg) | Up to $6,300 (bull case) | Strong central bank demand, macro stress upside |
| Bank of America | ~$5,000 (peak) | ~$4,400 avg | Safe-haven demand, tight supply |
| Goldman Sachs | ~$4,900 | Year-end 2026 target | ETF inflows, Fed easing |
| Deutsche Bank | ~$4,450 avg | Range ~$3,950 to $4,950 | Central bank accumulation |
| UBS | ~$5,400 | Bullish case | Geopolitical risk, inflation hedging |
| Jefferies | ~$6,600 | Aggressive forecast | Structural monetary risk |
| Yardeni Research | ~$6,000 | Long-term upside | Dollar debasement thesis |
| Morgan Stanley | ~$4,800 | Moderate case | Balanced macro outlook |
| ANZ / Others | ~$5,000 | Consensus range | Global uncertainty |
Their predictions average out to about $5,245 with zero consensus as to range or what could be causing the current climb or what could cause any future movement.
I’ll end with another old adage when it comes to investing. You want to “buy low and sell high.” Buying a hot asset now could mean you would be buying high and selling low. That is not the preferred tract. Just because gold is at record highs now doesn’t mean it will stay there over time. As most of you know, we have a crystal ball in each of our conference rooms. I shine mine up every morning, but it is still cloudy on where the markets are going. Stay disciplined and don’t go overboard on the latest hot commodity.
Enjoy the warmer weather this weekend!
Rob